Research

18 min read

The state of chargebacks, 2026 edition

What 41 million transactions tell us about friendly fraud, win rates and where disputes are heading next.

Portrait of Nadia Reyes

Nadia Reyes

Head of Risk Research

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In this article

01

Dispute volume by industry

02

Win rates by reason code

03

Five predictions for 2027

FIG. 01 — Disputes per 10,000 orders, 2024 to 2026

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Our yearly report draws on 41 million transactions and 1.2 million disputes from merchants on the RecoverIQ network. Here are the numbers that matter most.

Dispute volume by industry

IndustryDisputes per 10,000 orders
Digital goods41
Subscriptions33
Travel27
Ecommerce18

Win rates by reason code

Fraud claims became more winnable after Compelling Evidence 3.0, while “not as described” stayed the hardest to win.

Five predictions for 2027

  • Alerts will stop more disputes than responses win.

  • Friendly fraud will pass 75% of all disputes.

  • Networks will reward merchants who share order data early.

  • Manual dispute teams will shrink to exceptions only.

  • Refund rules will become standard for small orders.

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Portrait of Nadia Reyes

Written by Nadia Reyes

Head of Risk Research

Nadia leads RecoverIQ’s research team and has spent a decade inside card network dispute programmes.

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TOPICS

#Friendly fraud

#Dispute ratios

#Reason codes

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